The government wants to maintain the liveability of areas where the population is shrinking or where decline is forecast. The provincial and municipal authorities hold primary responsibility for tackling the consequences of population decline and demographic ageing. Their efforts are supported by central government. But the authorities cannot tackle the problem alone.
They need to work together with housing associations, care institutions, active members of the community and businesses. By working together, local stakeholders and the authorities can develop ways to deal with the effects of population decline. But even with the best healthcare, not all children survive to adulthood. Also, babies are ever so slightly more likely to be male.
It means the replacement figure is 2. Nations with higher childhood mortality also need a higher fertility rate. Prof Ibrahim Abubakar, University College London UCL , said: "If these predictions are even half accurate, migration will become a necessity for all nations and not an option.
Follow James on Twitter. Image source, Getty Images. What is going on? Why are fertility rates falling? Which countries will be most affected? Image source, BBC Sport. Why is this a problem?
The study projects:. The number of under-fives will fall from million in to million in The number of over year-olds will soar from million in to million in Are there any solutions? How do countries fight falling birth rates? What about Africa? Why is 2. What do the experts say? Official data showed the country's birth rate had fallen to its lowest level in 70 years in Some fear that the country is a "demographic time bomb", which will see a smaller working-age population having to support a bigger, retired population.
As one of the world's biggest economies, this would have global ramifications. Concerns over China's ageing population led the government to end the one-child policy in , allowing couples to have two children. But while this sparked a brief increase in birth rates, it failed to reverse the trend long-term.
The one-child policy has been blamed for a severe gender imbalance in the country, with males still outnumbering females by more than 30 million in This has, in part, been blamed on some couples opting for sex-selective abortions. Experts also said that the easing of population restrictions was not accompanied by additional support for families, meaning many people could not afford more than one child.
Iran is also expected to see its population significantly decline by the end of the century. The country experienced a population boom after the Islamic Revolution in , but went on to implement an effective population control policy. Without action, it said it could become one of the world's oldest countries in the next 30 years. State-run news agency Irna has reported that marriage and children within marriage are both in decline , largely because of economic hardship.
In an effort to boost its population, Iran ruled last month that vasectomies can no longer be carried out at state-run medical centres and contraceptives will only be offered to women whose health might be at risk. Brazil has experienced a dramatic decline in fertility rates over the past 40 years, from about 6. The Lancet study projects that Brazil's population will decline from about million in to less than million in A study suggested that soap operas portraying small families had contributed to lower birth rates in the predominantly Catholic country.
While overall birth rates are in decline, Brazil is actively trying to stem high teenage pregnancy rates, launching a campaign called "Adolescence first, pregnancy after". We had the courage to say we are going to talk about delaying the start of sexual relations," Damares Alves, the minister for women, family and human rights, told the BBC earlier this year.
India is expected to overtake China as the most populous country in the world by , according to the new study. This is despite the fact that the size of its population is expected to decline from today's numbers - dropping from 1. The birth rate in the country currently stands at about 2.
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